Forecasting Credit Card Downgrade Post-Upsell
Overview
A leading Indian bank sought to analyze and forecast credit card downgrade behavior post-upsell across its entire portfolio. The objective was to identify customer microsegments prone to downgrading after being pitched a higher-value credit card.
Solution
- Empirical Analysis: Conducted a univariate analysis of downgrade trends across various customer segments, considering historical behavior, demographics, and financial engagement at acquisition.
- Microsegmentation: Clustered customers based on their response to upsell attempts—upsell success, upsell failure, and upsell not attempted—to identify high-risk downgrade segments.
- Strategic Insights: Assessed the impact of different upsell channels and refined the targeting strategy to improve upsell efficiency.
Impacts
Through continuous monitoring and well-designed campaigns, the bank successfully increased both its contact rate and save rate. One significant actionable insight was the identification of successful channels for campaigns.
Optimized Upsell Strategy – Identified customer segments misaligned with upselling, enabling the bank to reduce efforts on downgrade-prone microsegments.
Improved Retention & Profitability – Helped the bank prioritize high-value customers, ensuring better credit card utilization and long-term engagement.
